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Finding Perspective Amid Coronavirus Concerns

Presented by Blakely Financial Advisory Team

We recently saw one of the worst weeks in history for the stock market, followed by the best single-day rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). With such volatility all but assured until the coronavirus appears to be under control, it’s understandable to fear that we’re on the road to another financial crisis. What can investors do to protect themselves? To answer this question, we first need to assess what is really happening—and what isn’t.

Focus on the Fundamentals

Let’s start with the fundamentals. What’s driving this pullback is fear—specifically, fear of the coronavirus. The most visceral fear is that this virus will be another Spanish flu, killing millions around the globe. Even for those who don’t expect the damage to be quite that bad, there is worry that the spread of the virus will disrupt economies, slowing growth for several quarters at least or possibly indefinitely and, consequently, taking stock markets down. These fears are what have caused markets to plummet.

Putting the Fear in Context

To understand where we are going, then, we must put that fear into context. If the worst fears are true, we should see virus cases exploding around the world. In fact, we aren’t. In China, where the epidemic is most advanced, new cases have leveled off—the containment measures seem to be working. Elsewhere in the world, new cases are still rising. Even there, however, the rate of increase is nowhere near what was initially seen in China and seems to be leveling off. Further, the number of recoveries is rising. This means that even though there has been an increase in total cases, the number of sick patients is declining.

In other words, the worst fears—of an exploding number of infections around the world leading to millions of deaths—simply are not coming true.

Economic Damage Is Real

The same cannot be said for the economic disruption. The Chinese policy of mass lock-downs and quarantines has hit economic activity quite sharply, and the recovery from that hit has been slower than expected. South Korea has seen the same consequences. As these two countries are major exporters and critical components of many supply chains, that slowdown alone will be disruptive. Even as these countries get the epidemic under control and get back to work, the economic effects will linger for months. This damage is already assured.

We can also potentially expect to see the same economic damage in other countries. Several have shut down their school systems or cancelled public events. Airlines here in the U.S. have waived fees for trips postponed or cancelled due to the virus. In other words, the effects of the virus will cause a similar slowdown in spending and growth around the world, and this slowdown is already happening. The economic damage is real and growing, even as the health risk seems to be moderating.

This is where we are now. The first phase of the epidemic, in China, has peaked and is now declining. Signs are that the second wave, in countries around the world, will follow a similar course. There is currently economic damage, and there will be more. But absent an acceleration in the infection rates, the damage looks likely to be contained to this quarter and perhaps next.

What Are the Markets Telling Us?

Given all of these factors, a market reaction was both reasonable and expected. What was surprising, though, was the speed and magnitude of that reaction. What are markets telling us? On the surface, it seems they are saying that things are considerably worse than what the infection rates and damage so far indicate. Are the markets right?

Based on history, probably not. The decline of about 15 percent from the peak is in line with what happened in 2015–2016 with the Zika virus, when we saw a 12.9 percent decline. The SARS virus, in 2003, took the S&P 500 down 12.8 percent. In both cases, the market reacted with fear to what might happen and did so quickly, just as we are seeing now. In both cases, however, the actual result was not nearly as bad as feared, and markets rebounded, which we’ve also seen.

The economic and market damage is real, but we will see policy responses designed to alleviate the damage. The first of such responses was the 0.50 percent rate cut the Fed instituted on Tuesday, March 3. We will likely see additional moves, if the situation continues to worsen, which should help support markets and dampen volatility going forward.

Certainly, current conditions are worrisome, and they might well get worse. There is no timetable for the end of the epidemic. It might last a while. We will, however, ultimately see an end, and the data suggests it might not be far off. At that point, we will also see a subsequent normalization of the markets, just as we did with Zika and SARS. Any action we consider should take that information into account.

Important Reminders for Investors

As investors, we also need to consider two final points. First, even though stock markets are down from the peak, bond markets are up. For a diversified portfolio, the decline is material, but it’s not nearly as bad as the indices themselves. Events like this are the reason we diversified in the first place.

Second, unless you need the money immediately, a drop (even a big one) and then recovery are just part of the normal ebb and flow of markets. We have seen this pattern many times before, most recently at the end of 2018. Of course, market declines are always a surprise and always scary. Over time, however, the fundamentals reassert themselves, and growth resumes.

As we look at the data, we need to think back to the sharp market drop in 2018 and the subsequent recovery. We need to remember the Zika virus pullback and the subsequent recovery. We need to remember that market pullbacks are normal, even ones that are big and fast. And we need to remember that we made it through all of those and many more. We will make it through this.

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at WWW.BLAKELYFINANCIAL.COM to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

BLAKELY FINANCIAL, INC. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.

© 2020 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Money Lessons for Women Millennials

Presented by Emily Promise, AIF®, APMA®, CRPC®

Being a woman who is in her 20s, I personally have been introduced to the realities of adulthood and I am sure you can relate if you are around that 20-30 year old mark. While you’re excited by all the opportunities life has to offer, you are also aware of your emerging financial responsibility. In the financial realm, the millennial generation (young adults born between 1981 and 1997) faces a unique set of challenges, including a competitive job market and significant student loan debt that can make it difficult to obtain financial stability.

At Blakely Financial, we have seen poor money management lead to debt, stress, and dependency on others. Fortunately, good money management skills can make it easier for you to accomplish your personal goals. Become familiar with the basics of planning now, and your future self will thank you for being responsible.

Figure out your financial goals

I have found that setting goals is an important part of life, particularly when it comes to your finances. Over time, your goals will probably change, which will likely require you to make some adjustments. Start by asking yourself the following questions:

  • What are my short-term goals (e.g., new car, vacation)?
  • What are my intermediate-term goals (e.g., buying a home)?
  • What are my long-term goals (e.g., saving for your child’s college education, retirement)?
  • How important is it for me to achieve each goal?
  • How much will I need to save for each goal?

Once you have a clear picture of your goals, you can establish a budget that will help you target them.

Build a budget

A budget helps you stay on track with your finances. There are several steps you’ll need to take to establish a budget. Start by identifying your current monthly income and expenses. This is easier than it sounds: Simply add up all of your sources of income. Do the same thing with your expenses, making sure to include discretionary expenses (e.g., entertainment, travel, hobbies) as well as fixed expenses (e.g., housing, food, utilities, transportation).

Compare the totals. Are you spending more than you earn? This means you’ll need to make some adjustments to get back on track. Look at your discretionary expenses to identify where you can scale back your spending. It might take some time and self-discipline to get your budget where it needs to be, but you’ll develop healthy financial habits along the way.

On the other hand, you may discover that you have extra money that you can put toward savings. Pay yourself first by adding to your retirement account or emergency fund. Building up your savings using extra income can help ensure that you accomplish your financial goals over the long term.

Establish an emergency fund

In my work with Blakely Financial, one of the biggest mistakes is not having an emergency fund. It’s an unpleasant thought, but a financial crisis could strike when you least expect it, so you’ll want to be prepared. Protect yourself by setting up a cash reserve so you have funds available in the event you’re confronted with an unexpected expense. Otherwise you may need to use money that you have earmarked for another purpose–such as a down payment on a home–or go into debt.

You may be familiar with advice that you should have three to six months’ worth of living expenses in your cash reserve. In reality, though, the amount you should save depends on your particular circumstances. Consider factors like job security, health, income, and debts owed when deciding how much money should be in your cash reserve.

A good way to accumulate emergency funds is to earmark a percentage of your paycheck each pay period. When you reach your goal, don’t stop adding money–the more you have saved, the better off you’ll be.

Review your cash reserve either annually or when your financial situation changes. Major milestones like a new baby or homeownership will likely require some adjustments.

Be careful with credit cards

Getting my first credit card was so exciting! Credit cards can be useful in helping you monitor how much you spend, but they can also lead you to spend more than you can afford. Before accepting a credit card offer, evaluate it carefully by doing the following:

  • Read the terms and conditions closely
  • Know what the interest rate is and how it is calculated
  • Understand hidden fees such as late-payment charges and over-limit fees
  • Look for rewards and/or incentive programs that will be most beneficial to you

Contact the credit card issuer if you have questions about the language used in an offer. And if you are trying to decide between two or more credit card offers, be sure to evaluate them to determine which will work best for you.

Bear in mind that your credit card use affects your credit score. Avoid overspending by setting a balance that you’re able to pay off fully each month. That way, you can safely build credit while being financially responsible. Take into account that missed payments of any sort can cause your credit score to suffer. In turn, this could make it more difficult and expensive to borrow money later.

Deal with your existing debt

At this stage in your life, you might be dealing with student loan debt and wondering how you can pay it off. Fortunately, there are many repayment plans that make it easier to pay off student loans. Check to see whether you qualify for income-sensitive repayment options or Income-Based Repayment. Even if you’re not eligible, you may be able to refinance or consolidate your loans to make the repayment schedule easier on your budget. Explore all your options to find out what works best for you.

Beware of new borrowing

You’re doing your best to pay off your existing debt, but you might find that you need to borrow more (for example, for graduate school or a car). Think carefully before you borrow.

Ask yourself the following questions before you do:

  • Is this purchase necessary?
  • Have you comparison-shopped to make sure you’re getting the best possible deal?
  • How much will this loan or line of credit cost over time?
  • Can you afford to add another monthly payment to your budget?
  • Will the interest rate change if you miss a payment?
  • Are your personal finances in good shape at this time, or should you wait to borrow until you’ve paid off pre-existing debt?

Weigh your pre-existing debt against your need to borrow more and determine whether this is a wise decision at this particular point in your life.

Take advantage of technology

If you are in your 20s or 30s like me, you have had access to technology at a young age and this is one major advantage that benefits millennials, compared with our parents and grandparents when they were starting out. These days, there’s virtually an app or a program for everything, and that includes financial basics. Do your homework and find out which ones could be the most helpful to you. Do you need alerts to remind you to pay bills on time? Do you need help organizing your finances? Are you looking for a program that allows you to examine your bank, credit card, investment, and loan account activities all at once?

Researching different programs can also help with number crunching. Many financial apps offer built-in calculators that simplify tasks that may seem overwhelming, such as breaking down a monthly budget or figuring out a loan repayment plan. Experiment with what you find, and you’ll most likely develop skills and insight that you can use as a starting point for future planning.

Although apps are one way to get started, consider working with a financial professional for a more personalized strategy that can help you analyze your current situation and plan for the future. Be honest with yourself about your goals and your ability to make smart decisions and revisit those goals frequently and continue to increase investments in yourself. You will be so happy you did!

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at WWW.BLAKELYFINANCIAL.COM to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

EMILY PROMISE is a financial advisor with BLAKELY FINANCIAL, INC. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262 and can be reached at (336) 885-2530.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.

*Prepared by Broadridge Advisor Solutions

How Should Investors React to the Coronavirus?

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA, CAIA, MAI
Presented by Robert Blakely, CFP®, AIF®, CHFC®

It is now clear that the coronavirus has escaped the attempted containment by Chinese authorities and has spread around the world. According to the World Health Organization, there are 79,331 confirmed cases, of which 77,262 are in China and 2,069 are outside of China (as of February 24, 2020). The two largest country clusters are in South Korea (with 232) and Italy (with 64). And many of those numbers seem to be on the rise, with the Washington Post reporting on February 24 that there were 833 confirmed cases in South Korea and 53 confirmed cases in the U.S.

Market reaction

On Monday and Tuesday, global financial markets are down by 4 percent or more. Here in the U.S., they were down by almost 5 percent from their peaks. This drop is one of the largest in recent months, and it reflects the sudden apparent surge in cases over the weekend. Investors are clearly expecting more bad news—and rather than wait for it, they are selling.

Is selling the right thing to do? Probably not. Indeed, the virus could continue to spread and even get worse. But we do know a couple of things.

What we know

First, new cases in China seem to be leveling off, having peaked between January 23 and February 2. We can expect things to get worse in countries with new outbreaks, but steps can be taken to help control the virus—as has been shown in the origin country.

Second, countries have been applying the lessons learned from China to their own outbreaks, which should help contain their outbreaks. For example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports 14 cases diagnosed in the U.S., as well as 39 cases in people repatriated here from China or the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Cases here appear well contained and under surveillance, which should help limit any spread. The same holds true in most of the developed countries.

For all the hype, then, in many countries and certainly in the U.S., the coronavirus remains a very minor risk. Another way to put that risk in context is that during the current influenza season, there have been 15 million cases, 140,000 hospitalizations, and 8,200 deaths. Compared with the average flu season, then, the coronavirus does not even register. With 53 current coronavirus cases, it could certainly get worse. At least in the U.S., however, the overall damage is not likely to come close to what we already accept as “normal.”

Assessing the investment risk

While the risk to your health may be small, that may not be the case for your investments. The epidemic has already caused real economic damage in China, and it is likely to keep doing so for at least the first half of the year. The same case seems likely for South Korea. These two countries are key manufacturing hubs. Any slowdown there could easily migrate to other countries through component shortages, crippling supply chains around the world. Again, there are signs in the electronics and auto industries that the slowdown is already happening, which will be a drag on growth. This risk is largely behind the recent pullback in global markets.

Here, the key will be whether the virus is contained—which would still be a shock to the system but would be normalized fairly quickly—or whether it continues to spread. Right now, based on Chinese data, the first scenario looks more likely. If so, Chinese production should recover in the next six months, with the economic effects passing even more quickly. It might help to think of this situation like a hurricane, where there is significant damage that passes quickly. Stock markets, which typically react quickly on the downside, can bounce back equally quickly. Should the virus be contained, it would be a mistake to react to the current headlines. We have seen this situation before—the drop and bounce back—with other recent geopolitical events.

What if the virus continues to spread?

Even if the virus continues to spread around the world, those in the U.S. should take a deep breath. The U.S. economy and stock markets are among the least exposed to the rest of the world, and they are the best positioned to ride out any storm. Further, the U.S. health care system is among the best in the world, and the CDC is the top health protection agency in the world. As such, we are and should be relatively well protected. Finally, given that the U.S. economy and markets depend primarily on U.S. workers and their spending, we are less vulnerable to an epidemic. We should do relatively well, as has happened in the past.

The proper course

The headlines are scary and Monday’s market declines even more so. But the economic foundation remains reasonably solid around the world. The epidemic is a shock, but it is not likely to derail the recovery. The World Health Organization, while recognizing the risks, has not declared a pandemic, indicating that the risks remain contained. The U.S. is well positioned, both for the virus and for the economic effects.

We certainly need to pay attention. But as of now, watchful waiting continues to be the proper course. Once again, remain calm and carry on.

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at WWW.BLAKELYFINANCIAL.COM to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

ROBERT BLAKELY, CFP® is a financial advisor with BLAKELY FINANCIAL, INC. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262. He is the founder and president of Blakely Financial, Inc. celebrating 25 years in business.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.

Social Security Scam Phone Calls Are On The Rise

Authored by ROBERT BLAKELY, CFP®, AIF®, CHFC®

Over the past several weeks, I have received quite a few calls on my cell phone warning me about activity in my Social Security account. Luckily, I know these are fake calls and I hang up, but there are many people that are scared by these calls and are lured in, calling the number back and providing personal information, including their Social Security numbers and bank account information.

Tax time is upon us and this is the perfect time for hackers to utilize Social Security numbers to claim tax refunds before legitimate taxpayers have a chance to file their tax returns.

In addition to the increase in phone calls, there is also an increase in fake documents by email, convincing victims to comply with the demand for Social Security numbers, bank account information and payments. These letters oftentimes use official letterhead and government jargon. A telltale sign that these letters are from scammers is misspelled words and grammatical errors in addition to demands of payment with gift cards, cash, internet currency, wire transfers or prepaid debit cards.

In the event there is a real problem with your Social Security record, Social Security will mail you a letter. There might be an attempt to claim one of your dependents as their own on another tax return.  Learn more at What to Do When Someone Fraudulently Claims Your Dependent.

You might find that your tax return was rejected due to a duplicate Social Security number.  You will have to fill out the IRS Form 14039, Identity Theft Affidavit.  Respond immediately by calling the toll-free number and have a copy of your prior year’s tax return to verify your identity.  Once you verify your identity and determine with the Social Security department that there was an attempt by scammers to file your return, the IRS will remove the fraudulent return and allow you to file using a paper return for the current filing season. If it was your legitimate return filed by you, it will be released for processing and your refund will be sent.

In the unfortunate event that your identity has been compromised, visit Identity Theft Victim Assistance: How it Works for direction.

Just remember, now more than ever, you must protect your Social Security number and keep it safe from these scammers. Follow these best practices, in order to keep your information safe:

  • Do not answer calls from numbers you do not recognize and do not provide personal information through an email
  • Do not click on links in those emails
  • Consider credit freezes that allow new credit and accounts from being opened in your name. Check on your credit report annually at annualcreditreport.com
  • Maintain strong passwords for all online access

And as always, if you have any questions, feel free to call our team at Blakely Financial for more information.

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at WWW.BLAKELYFINANCIAL.COM to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

ROBERT BLAKELY, CFP® is a financial advisor with BLAKELY FINANCIAL, INC. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262. He is the founder and president of Blakely Financial, Inc. celebrating 25 years in business.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.

Tax and Financial Organization

Authored by Robert Blakely, CFP®, AIF®, ChFC®

It is that time of year again. A time of year when you would rather be doing something, anything other than filing your taxes. This is a great time, however, as you are gathering and organizing your tax documents to also set up a financial organization system. Here are some things that may be helpful when organizing not only your tax documents but your financial planning documents.

Have a Proper Filing System

One of the most overwhelming things about filing taxes is dealing with the huge amounts of paperwork. Though emails and online documents are making it easier, you still need to ensure that you have all the important documents organized and easily accessible. Keep your files close to where you do all your work to ensure easy access and avoid the possibility of misplaced files and documents.

Creating Your Files

The simpler you keep your documents, the easier they will be to file and retrieve at any time. Write down each category and label documents accordingly. Color coordinate to make it easier to find the category you are looking for.

Organizational Checklist

Now that you have your filing system in place, you can easily categorize your papers.

  1. Income and Investment Information
      • W-2 – showing your earnings and what was withheld for taxes
      • Taxable alimony, jury duty records, hobby income and expenses
      • Bank or financial institution statements
        • Did you make contributions to an IRA? (Form 5498)
        • Are you paying down student load debt? (Form 1098-E)
        • Did you take out a home mortgage? (Form 1098 Mortgage Interest Statement)
      • Last year’s state refund amount – If you itemize your deductions, then your state refund is considered income for tax purposes.
      • Other miscellaneous income – This could include award money, gambling winnings, lottery payouts, etc.
      • Any and all Form 1099s
  1. Insurance
    • This file will include all types of insurance: car, life, health, home and other insurance policies.
  2. Paid taxes and tax returns
    • When you properly document all the taxes you have paid, it can prevent overpaying. Include all real estate taxes, state and local income taxes and personal property taxes.
  3. Vehicles
    • Keep a copy of state taxes for your vehicles.
    • Claim the actual expenses of your vehicles if allowed. You should keep all gas receipts, maintenance and washing. Tolls and parking receipts are needed as well.
    • You must provide the record for mileage when using your vehicle for business purposes. Record the beginning mileage on January 1st and store it in the file so you know where to go at the end of the year with your ending mileage.
  4. Children
    • Keep your childcare expenses in this file. If you utilize a childcare provider, keep their tax ID number or SS number.
  5. Charities
    • Keep receipts for any physical or monetary donations you have made. In the case of itemizing, you need to document what you have given with the date of donation and the name and address of the organization.
  6. Health, Dental and Other Medical Expenses
    • Keep all health insurance costs and receipts for all unreimbursed medical expenses. These could include exams, surgeries and preventative care. It could also include braces, glasses, hearing aids, prescriptions and transportation to and from treatment.
    • Form 1095 – Health Insurance Coverage Forms
  7. Personal Information
    • Store your social security cards, birth, death, marriage, divorce certificates, prenuptial agreements, etc. for all family members.
  8. Social Security Information
    • If you receive Social Security, you will receive an SSA-1099 in January showing the total amount of benefits you received for the year.
  9. Self-Employment and Business Records (where applicable)
    • Business Expense Records
    • Quarterly Estimated Tax Payment Receipts
    • Mileage Records
  10. Estate Documents
    • Wills, Power of Attorneys, Health Care Power of Attorneys, Living Wills, Trusts
    • Keep all these for all family members in one place for easy access
  11. Logins & Passwords
    • Best practice is to write down your passwords and keep them in a safe place
    • Using a password manager to keep track of your logins and passwords can be helpful
    • Avoid using obvious personal information as a password

By following these tips, becoming well organized and keeping everything in one place you won’t dread tax time as much.

Check with your tax professional for guidance on your specific tax situation and for policies and regulations that may pertain to you.

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at WWW.BLAKELYFINANCIAL.COM to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

ROBERT BLAKELY, CFP® is a financial advisor with BLAKELY FINANCIAL, INC. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262. He is the founder and president of Blakely Financial, Inc. celebrating 25 years in business.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.

Coronavirus: Investors Should Hold Their Nerve

Presented by Robert Blakely, CFP®, AIF®, ChFC
Authored by James Gard, Morningstar Investment Editor

Public health outbreaks and epidemics like the recent coronavirus can quickly scare investors and, eventually, affect economies and businesses. World stock markets have tumbled since the first death was announced on January 11, with Chinese equities more than 10% lower since then.

The recent coronavirus outbreak has shut down airports, halted trade, and led to the rapid construction of new hospitals in China. The effects of the outbreak may push China’s economy into a period of slower growth, with stocks trading lower as investors seek protection.

So, what does that mean for investors?

Key takeaways 

  • Looking at nine major outbreaks since 1998, there is little evidence linking global epidemics with long-term investment fundamentals.
  • The Chinese economy may slow, perhaps even meaningfully, but that is not a reason to invest or divest. Long-term investing is often best disconnected from short-term economic reactions, so investors should maintain their focus on what matters.
  • Across the portfolios run by Morningstar Investment Management, we do have a relatively small exposure to Chinese assets (both directly and indirectly) but remain confident these holdings will deliver positive outcomes for long-term investors.

Epidemics and investing

To understand the potential impacts of an outbreak, we must make a forecast. But it’s important to acknowledge that we’re trying to peer into the future, which is wrought with intellectual danger. No one can predict the future, but plenty of research suggest ways that forecasts can be improved.

One way to improve the accuracy of a forecast is to start with base rates. How often do outbreaks become epidemics? What effect do epidemics have on economies or markets? For this latter question, we look to Exhibit 1 to provide a sense of base rates—market returns following major epidemics in recent history.

As depicted, market participants tend to react to such unforeseen outbreaks, but markets tend to recover by the six-month mark. This suggests that sentiment drives early losses, but sustained economic impacts are less than perhaps investors feared at the onset.

Another way to improve forecasts is by admitting what you don’t and can’t know. Medical experts might be able to predict mortality rates etc, but no one can predict how unknowable factors might affect the spread of this or any outbreak. That’s not to mention knowing how fear might affect markets.

So how can we make a reasonable assessment of the potential impact of the coronavirus? As long-term, valuation-driven investors, our concern is any potential impact to businesses’ cash flows. For example, will the collective impact of the outbreak (fewer flights, less trade, loss of productivity, etc.) affect a few businesses, a few industries, or entire markets? That’s the question we’re asking.

Our answer is that, at this stage, we have to assume the outbreak will take a similar path to other recent epidemics, and thus we feel there’s no reason for investors to be alarmed. Note that there’s no “safe” approach for investors — for example, exiting stocks in favor of cash has its own risk, namely crystallizing any losses suffered to sentiment while almost surely missing out on a rebound if the virus were to be contained quickly. So, we want to proceed by assuming what we consider to be the most likely scenario, while taking other possible outcomes into account.

Ultimately, we are very watchful but aren’t taking any action. Across our portfolio range, we may hold exposure to Chinese stocks, emerging markets stocks, emerging markets debt, and companies that sell into China to varying degrees depending on the portfolio mandate. Even so, we are still expecting that these holdings will deliver positive outcomes over the long term, and it would require a clear impact to fundamentals for our view to change.

However, once the facts change, we would expect to change our minds. If we were to see a clear and significant potential impact to investment fundamentals, we would carefully study the situation, conduct rigorous scenario analysis, and try to incorporate the new information into our portfolios. Until then, we remain vigilant.

Don’t Panic Yet

With lives at stake, it would be uncaring to call the coronavirus “noise”. Yet, if we focus on the investor’s perspective, we believe it is not time to act. Moreover, we remain confident in our portfolio holdings because they reflect a solid base of research and resemble a well-reasoned way to invest. We certainly won’t be hitting the panic button and we hope you won’t either.

© Copyright 2020 Morningstar. All rights reserved.

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at WWW.BLAKELYFINANCIAL.COM to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

ROBERT BLAKELY, CFP® is a financial advisor with BLAKELY FINANCIAL, INC. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262. He is the founder and president of Blakely Financial, Inc. celebrating 25 years in business.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.

What is Financial Wellness?

Authored by Robert Blakely, CFP®, ChFC, AIF®

Have you made your New Year’s resolutions yet? Chances are, your resolutions revolve around getting more sleep, spending more time with loved ones, eating better and going to the gym every day. But have you resolved to get your finances in check? In a recent survey, 87 percent of Americans said nothing makes them happier or more confident than healthy finances. Can you say that you are content with your financial health and well-being?

Achieving money–related balance and financial wellness isn’t necessarily about investing a set dollar amount or your ability to pay for something expensive without flinching. It’s much broader. It is about getting your entire house in order. It can be as simple as chatting about starting your travel fund, saving $20 a month or whether or not your company offers a 401(k) match. Financial independence affords us the opportunity to live the life that we want. It is about developing a healthy relationship with money and feeling a sense of control over short-term obligations while working toward those long-term goals.

One essential first step towards financial wellness is actively talking about your finances. That is not to say you have to divulge personal details about your savings and debt to your whole group of friends, but choosing a mentor or meeting with a financial advisor to put together an action plan can help.

Planning for financial wellness includes the following steps:

Develop goals and set priorities.

What do you want to accomplish? Where do you want to be? When do you want to be there?

Assess current assets and resources.

Document your financial snapshot currently.  Know where you are starting from.

Identify barriers to reaching your goals.

If you are confused about a particular topic, like the different types of retirement funds offered, ask questions. There are plenty of free resources online to help learn the basics of financial literacy. And that financial advisor you contact will be your best resource to guide you down the path of financial wellness.

Incorporate strategies into your plan.

Commit to small steps to improve your current financial situation. Bring your lunch to work a few days a week; set up an automatic transfer each month to your savings account; forego that expensive cup of coffee each day –small changes each day can make a big difference and build confidence and discipline over time.

Put the plan into action.

Be sure to celebrate the milestones along the way. Those small accomplishments will continue to push you towards success as you gain that financial well-being you so deserve.

Monitor your progress, evaluate where you are and adjust the plan as necessary.

Be flexible and respond to change. When necessary, reset the course which will bring you back to Step 1, and the process continues.  Financial planning is not a one-time event. It is an ever-changing, ongoing journey, providing the framework for achieving short and long-term goals on your quest for financial wellness.

 

Engage with the entire Blakely Financial team at www.blakelyfinancial.com to see what other expert advice we can provide towards your financial well-being.

Robert Blakely, CFP® is a financial advisor with Blakely Financial, Inc. located at 1022 Hutton Ln., Suite 109, High Point, NC 27262. He is the founder and president of Blakely Financial, Inc. celebrating 25 years in business.

Blakely Financial, Inc. is an independent financial planning and investment management firm that provides clarity, insight, and guidance to help our clients attain their financial goals.

Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.